An Analysis of Crysvita and Dojolvi’s Performance and Future Potential – TipRanks Financial Blog


In a report released today, Yaron Werber from TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RAREResearch Report), with a price target of $59.00.

Yaron Werber has given his Buy rating for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical due to a variety of considerations.
Firstly, despite a one-time weak third quarter for Crysvita, management has assured that their fiscal year 2023 guidance is still achievable. The Q3 drop was a result of lower recorded inventories during a one-time transition from Ultragenyx-branded product in North America to KKC-branded product. This is part of a planned shift of commercialization responsibilities to KKC as per the original collaboration agreement. The expectation is for Q4 revenues to return to previous growth rates. Management has also confirmed their FY23 guidance of $325-340M in Crysvita sales, a growth of +20% year-over-year, which Werber believes is attainable.


Moreover, Dojolvi’s Q3 sales were in line with expectations. Ultragenyx continues to secure reimbursement in various regions, having completed pricing negotiations in Canada and working with authorities in Austria, the Middle East, and Mexico. The management also reported that 70 patients have been converted to reimbursed treatment this year across 30 new prescribers. Werber anticipates Dojolvi as a potential growth driver, projecting FY23 sales at the lower end of Ultragenyx’s FY23 guidance ($65-75M; 54% y/y).
Finally, Werber believes that Ultragenyx will continue to show steady growth, with investor focus likely to be on upcoming H1:24 readouts in Angelman syndrome (AS), Wilson disease, and GSD1a. Management has outlined a clear path for the stock’s continued appreciation over the next 12-18 months, providing multiple de-risked opportunities to recapture investor interest.

Werber covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Relay Therapeutics, Amgen, and Exelixis. According to TipRanks, Werber has an average return of 21.4% and a 63.75% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released on October 25, Piper Sandler also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $130.00 price target.


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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Company Description:


Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

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