Surge to Trend High Raises Questions


The natural gas investing sector exhibited a formidable surge, reaching a new trend high of 3.055. However, the subsequent emergence of sellers signals a potential retracement, prompting discussions on the longevity of this bullish momentum.

Analyzing Patterns and Fibonacci Extensions

The ascent to this significant high completed a rising ABCD pattern, further extended by the Fibonacci ratio of 127.2% (D). This juncture represents a logical point for the advance to conclude, at least in the near term potentially.


Anticipations lean towards a weaker close following this new trend, heightening concerns that the breakout might rapidly dissipate. Having retreated from the 3.055 pinnacle earlier in the session, natural gas now lies below the midway point (2.995) of the day’s range.

Bearish Signals and Natural Gas Advantages

The potential emergence of a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern is a consideration in light of the current trading position. This pattern signifies a rapid change in sentiment from strongly bullish to bearish within a single day. However, it’s crucial to emphasize that this doesn’t automatically indicate an enduring bearish trend unless there’s a significant decline below today’s low of 2.935.

Examining where natural gas trading concludes concerning the previous trend high of 3.02 yields critical insights into potential price behaviour. The decline below this prior peak and the likelihood of a closure beneath it support the notion of a short-term bearish scenario evolving.


A Pivotal Breakthrough: Long-Term Downtrend Line

In a pivotal development, natural gas has breached and distanced itself from its long-standing downtrend line for the first time. Yesterday’s bullish daily close above the line signalled a noteworthy display of strength and marked a departure from previous closures below it. This breakthrough was the inaugural daily close above this significant line. Subsequently, today’s surge in bullish sentiment culminated in a new trend high and is poised for a second daily close above the line. Thus, scrutiny of business gas prices upon retesting the trendline as potential support becomes crucial. Will it effectively hold as support, paving the way for a bullish price reversal? Or will the price plummet through it? The former scenario would see prices maintained at or above the line.

Natural Gas Investing: Market Dynamics; Winter Anticipation

A substantial battle is anticipated as the natural gas futures market hovers around the $3.00 threshold. Factors such as increasing demand in the coming months and uncertainties surrounding European natural gas storage supply further complicate this market’s dynamics. With various global factors at play, including the ongoing situation in Ukraine and disruptions in West African pipelines, a volatile but potentially positive winter for natural gas investing is on the horizon. Positions should be approached judiciously, considering potential breakout opportunities, with a long-term target around the $5.00 mark.


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